Celtics
A loss to Orlando hurts significantly, but does it bounce Boston entirely?
The Celtics always seem to make it hard on themselves, don’t they?
Had they beaten the Magic on Friday, the Celtics would have clinched the No. 1 spot in the Eastern Conference Group C standings and advanced to the in-season tournament knockout stage.
Instead, Boston fell to Orlando in one of its worst losses of the season. It wasn’t just that the Celtics lost; it was how they lost that really diminished their chances. Falling by 17 points hurts significantly as they try to advance, as the Celtics (2-1) now have a point differential of zero entering Tuesday’s matchup with the Bulls (0-3).
The tiebreakers are head-to-head, point differential, total points, regular-season-record from 2022-23, and a random drawing. There’s a whole lot of math involved.
Here are all the permutations for those who have in-season tournament fever.
Can the Celtics still win Group C?
The short answer: Yes, but it’s highly unlikely.
The longer answer: Boston needs to beat Chicago by at least 23 points, Brooklyn needs to beat Toronto, and Boston needs to have a point differential at least eight points better than the Nets, who are currently plus-8.
That would mean Boston, Brooklyn, and Orlando are all in a tie. Since the Magic beat the Celtics, the Nets beat the Magic, and the Celtics beat the Nets, it would come down to point differential, followed by total points.
So don’t be surprised if there’s some scoreboard watching involved. Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla might keep his starters in and tell Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to start hoisting 3s with the outcome already decided (he won’t have to tell them twice).
Can they advance as a wild card?
There are six division winners and one wild card from each conference, which means the odds are slim for the Celtics to nab that final spot if they don’t win the division. But, there is a path.
The Knicks (2-1, plus-18), Heat (2-1, plus-11), Nets (2-1, plus-8), and Cavaliers (2-1, plus-6) are all in the hunt, along with highly unlikely candidates Philadelphia (2-2), Atlanta (1-2), and Charlotte (1-2).
Here’s the schedule Tuesday night:
Bulls at Celtics, 7:30 p.m.
Raptors at Nets, 7:30 p.m.
Hawks at Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m.
Bucks at Heat, 7:30 p.m.
Hornets at Knicks, 7:30 p.m.
Thunder at Timberwolves, 8 p.m.
Rockets at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m.
Warriors at Kings, 10 p.m.
So, the Celtics want the Nets to win by a small margin, the Hawks to beat the Cavaliers, the Bucks to beat the Heat, and the Hornets to beat the Knicks. If the Celtics win, and all those things happen, Boston gets the final spot.
There is a bizarre, and highly unlikely, scenario where the Celtics lose and still find a way to advance at 2-2. If all those teams lose by a significant margin, and Boston ends up as the top team in terms of point differential, that would do the job.
Still with us? Kudos to you. It may seem bleak, but it is possible. There’s a lot to watch for Tuesday night.
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