Here’s how Sunday’s Patriots game vs. Giants could affect their odds to get a top-two draft pick

Patriots

Sunday’s game against the Giants could matter for the Patriots come draft time.

Bill Belichick and the Patriots could be sitting in pole position to land a top pick in the 2024 NFL Draft if they lose on Sunday. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

Sunday’s Patriots-Giants battle will have high stakes, but not the kind that many Patriots fans have been accustomed to over the last two decades.

Both teams enter the Week 12 matchup among the worst in the NFL. The Patriots sit at 2-8, holding the third-worst record in the NFL, while the Giants hold a 3-8 record after upsetting the Commanders last week. As many teams gear up for the post-Thanksgiving stretch for a postseason push, both the Patriots and Giants likely have some more losses ahead of them.

So, Sunday’s game could very well decide which team gets the No. 1 overall pick or a top-two selection in the 2024 NFL Draft. If the Patriots lose on Sunday, their chances of getting a top-two selection in next spring’s draft will rise to 38 percent, according to ESPN’s FPI. If they win though, their chances of getting a top-two pick will drop to nine percent, according to ESPN’s FPI.

On the flip side, the Giants appear to have a better chance at securing a top-two selection depending on the result of Sunday’s game. If the Patriots defeat the Giants, New York has a 47 percent chance of getting a top-two selection as opposed to an 11 percent chance of getting a top-two pick if it won, according to ESPN’s FPI.

The reason why the Giants likely have better odds of securing a top-two pick with a loss than the Patriots is likely due to strength of schedule. If both teams end up with the same record this season, Sunday’s game won’t have any bearing on tiebreakers as strength of schedule is the top tiebreaker in determining the draft order.

Because New York’s strength of schedule (.527) is easier than New England’s (.536) this season, it would get the better draft selection if the two teams had the same record. Of course, that can change as the season goes along.

The Patriots already got some help from the Giants last week, at least with how it pertains to the draft. New York’s upset win over Washington moved it behind New England in the draft order, moving down from No. 2 to No. 5.

With the Giants’ loss, the Patriots’ betting odds of ending up with the No. 1 overall pick improved a bit, too. They moved from +500 to +460 on FanDuel Sportsbook.

New England currently has the 20th-hardest remaining strength of schedule this season. However, Sunday’s game could be the last time it’s favored to win a game this season as four of its final six opponents are .500 or better. The Patriots are currently 3.5-point favorites to win Sunday’s game against the Giants.

If the Patriots fall on Sunday, they’ll need some help in order to secure a top-two pick, which could very well determine if they land one of Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. But it’s clear Sunday’s game could have some impact on their future.